The Iranian dilemma
If Israel were to attack Iran it would be disastrous for the US; negotiations must be the first resort.
Al Jazeera English MJ Rosenberg Last Modified: 18 Oct 2010 08:16 GMT
Bruce Riedel, a senior fellow at Brookings, wrote in the Nixon Centre's "National Interest" last month that an Israeli attack on Iran would be catastrophic. Riedel, no reflexive dove - he is a former CIA officer and adviser on terrorism to three Presidents - explains why the United States has to respond with a "clear red light" to any proposed Israeli attack.
An Israeli attack on Iran is a disaster in the making. And it will directly impact key strategic American interests. Iran will see an attack as American supported if not American orchestrated. The aircraft in any strike will be American-produced, supplied and funded F-15s and F-16s, and most of the ordnance will be from American stocks. Washington's $3 billion in assistance annually makes possible the IDF's conventional superiority in the region.
Iran will almost certainly retaliate against both U.S. and Israeli targets.... Even if Iran chooses to retaliate in less risky ways, it could respond indirectly by encouraging Hezbollah attacks against Israel and Shia militia attacks against U.S. forces in Iraq, as well as terrorist attacks against American and Israeli targets in the Middle East and beyond.
America's greatest vulnerability would be in Afghanistan. Iran could easily increase its assistance to the Taliban and make the already-difficult Afghan mission much more complicated. Western Afghanistan is especially vulnerable to Iranian mischief, and NATO has few troops there to cover a vast area. President Obama would have to send more, not fewer, troops to fight that war.
Making matters worse, considering the likely violent ramifications, even a successful Israeli raid would only delay Iran's nuclear program.... Support for the existing sanctions on Iran after a strike would likely evaporate.
It is hard to imagine that anyone could argue with any of that. How could an Israeli attack on Iran not be disastrous for the United States, the region, and Israel itself?
If Israel were to attack Iran it would be disastrous for the US; negotiations must be the first resort.
Al Jazeera English MJ Rosenberg Last Modified: 18 Oct 2010 08:16 GMT
Bruce Riedel, a senior fellow at Brookings, wrote in the Nixon Centre's "National Interest" last month that an Israeli attack on Iran would be catastrophic. Riedel, no reflexive dove - he is a former CIA officer and adviser on terrorism to three Presidents - explains why the United States has to respond with a "clear red light" to any proposed Israeli attack.
An Israeli attack on Iran is a disaster in the making. And it will directly impact key strategic American interests. Iran will see an attack as American supported if not American orchestrated. The aircraft in any strike will be American-produced, supplied and funded F-15s and F-16s, and most of the ordnance will be from American stocks. Washington's $3 billion in assistance annually makes possible the IDF's conventional superiority in the region.
Iran will almost certainly retaliate against both U.S. and Israeli targets.... Even if Iran chooses to retaliate in less risky ways, it could respond indirectly by encouraging Hezbollah attacks against Israel and Shia militia attacks against U.S. forces in Iraq, as well as terrorist attacks against American and Israeli targets in the Middle East and beyond.
America's greatest vulnerability would be in Afghanistan. Iran could easily increase its assistance to the Taliban and make the already-difficult Afghan mission much more complicated. Western Afghanistan is especially vulnerable to Iranian mischief, and NATO has few troops there to cover a vast area. President Obama would have to send more, not fewer, troops to fight that war.
Making matters worse, considering the likely violent ramifications, even a successful Israeli raid would only delay Iran's nuclear program.... Support for the existing sanctions on Iran after a strike would likely evaporate.
It is hard to imagine that anyone could argue with any of that. How could an Israeli attack on Iran not be disastrous for the United States, the region, and Israel itself?