How does the Polisario fit into the picture?
In discussions of organized criminal activity in the Sahel and the growing reach of Al-Qaeda in the Islamic Maghreb (AQIM), most regional and Western defense strategists agree that urgent efforts are needed to address the frozen conflict in the Western Sahara. A Spanish colony since 1884, the Western Sahara did not become independent when Spain withdrew. Instead, Spain ceded the territory to Morocco and Mauritania in 1975, with Mauritania relinquishing its acquisition in 1979.
The UN secretary general recently warned about the vulnerability of some of the Sahrawis in the Polisario-controlled refugee camps in North-West Algeria to radicalization and terrorist infiltration. “All governments consulted raised serious concern over the risk that the fighting in Mali could spill over into the neighboring countries and contribute to radicalizing the Western Saharan refugee camps,” Ban Ki-moon said in a report to the 15-nation Security Council. Even the Polisario “have not ruled out terrorist infiltrations”.
This is the first time that the UN chief acknowledged what many experts have been describing for years now as a “ticking time bomb.” The same fears apply to the refugee camps in Mauritania and Niger where displaced Malians live in “appalling” conditions. Organized criminals and extremist groups will continue to exploit the fragility of states, frozen conflicts such as the Western Sahara, and the lack of regional security cooperation.
The great powers, including the United States, dread the prospect of the creation of another weak state in an area already afflicted by fragile or failing states. As Spanish journalist Ignacio Cembrero wrote recently, “Only a handful of Latin American and African countries hold contrary views.” Fragile and failing states pose real threats to international security. They are ideal locations for radical, violent organizations to recruit disenfranchised and alienated youth. Problems in these states can exacerbate protracted regional crises and reignite violent conflicts. Refugee flows, arms, drugs, and insurgencies regularly spill over the borders of fragile states with devastating consequences for neighbors.
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